Methodology
Useful estimates. Visible limits.
“Accurate” is an evaluation target, not a marketing promise. Values are uncertain, contextual, and manager-dependent.
Layer 01
Market value
Current dynasty market rankings come from Dynasty Dealer and map directly to Sleeper player IDs. Source, retrieval time, and stale states stay visible; market value is not presented as an Atlas projection.
Layer 02
Football model
Projected scoring and weekly outcomes require a separate, permitted projection source. Dynasty Atlas never turns market rank into a fake football projection.
Layer 03
League fit
Format scarcity, TE premium, starter impact, usable depth, replacement level, roster-space cost, and risk adjust the decision—not the player’s universal identity.
Layer 04
Goal utility
Target season and explicit constraints change recommendation priority. Factual roster classification and universal market values do not change when an objective changes.
Why four quarters do not always equal a dollar
Package adjustment
Raw value is strictly additive. Effective value preserves the best asset, applies diminishing weight to assets above replacement, adds a visible elite premium, and caps roster-space penalties so adding positive value never creates an unexplained negative marginal contribution.
Accuracy cannot agree with itself
Evaluation contract
Chronological train/validation/test splits and historical snapshots prevent hindsight leakage.
Track market rank correlation and held-out completed-trade error by format and tier.
Measure interval calibration, responsiveness, stability, and missing-data confidence.